(Brief Update 1.8.07)  No sooner did our models switch out of the metals complex when the Gold market obliged and declined in technical breakdown fashion.  Silver also broke its bullish intermediate uptrend and now trends lower. 

Gold Conclusion 2.26.2007

(See the new model updates are here.  Newmont remains on the Mini-Re sell list, but gold bullion is now bullish)

Our models have been long the gold bullion market since gold prices traded back through US $390, which is well over two years now, May 2004!  As we emphasize here often, but it is worth repeating, we are a long term oriented research house and not focused on the short term, or tactical day to day movements of the markets. There are plenty of places to go for that.

The evidence compiled in our fundamental and technical models (Watloosoft© inference engine) points to a long term correction in the price of bullion to at least the $500 but more likely the $450 area, and thus they are now in bearish agreement.  The scoreboard will now close the open gold and silver positions and initiate a gold and silver short position.  In addition, we will track Newmont Mining from the opportunity lost or gained side of the sell equation.  This report is not a recommendation to sell either gold or Newmont short, rather, it is simply a mechanism to track the markets, educate, and publicly disclose our model and research accuracy.

The futures and gold weekly scoreboard model updates are here.

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